Melissa Beats Zach Nunn
In a general election matchup, Melissa Vine beats Zach Nunn by 6 percentage points! This is 3 points higher than her primary opponent.
Every vote in this election is critical. In 2022, Rep. Cindy Axne lost this seat by only 2,145 votes. This was the closest incumbent loss in the country.
Hands down, Melissa Vine is the best Democrat to go head-to-head with Zach Nunn in November. Click here to download the polling memo. Share this page with a friend and on your socials to get Melissa Vine elected in the June 4th Democratic primary!
A new survey in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District shows Melissa Vine poised to be the strongest Democratic challenger against vulnerable GOP incumbent Zach Nunn. While neither Melissa Vine nor Lanon Baccam are well-known among the electorate this early, voters are mixed on their favorability towards Zach Nunn – making him vulnerable in November. Once both Democrats are introduced, they both lead against Nunn, however, Melissa Vine clearly breaks through as the stronger candidate head-to-head against Nunn leading by a net 6 points at the end of the survey. The survey was conducted among 436 likely 2024 voters in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District from February 6-8, 2024.
Key Findings
Voters have mixed views of Republican Zach Nunn. Personal favorability towards Zach Nunn is nearly split evenly (38% fav, 37% unfav), while at a net +1 favorability, voters who are unfavorable to Nunn (37% unfav, 25% very unfav) show more negative intensity than those who are favorable (38% fav, 19% very fav).
As expected, Melissa Vine and Lanon Baccam are largely unknown to voters overall. Roughly two-thirds of voters do not know enough about either candidate to rate them. However, both Vine (11% fav, 7% unfav, net +4) and Baccam (12% fav, 8% unfav, net +4) are on-net viewed more favorably than Nunn.
After balanced introductions of all candidates, Melissa Vine takes a strong lead against Nunn. Throughout the survey, respondents were provided balanced profiles of Vine, Baccam and Nunn before asked to vote (see Appendix for profiles). In the head-to-head between Vine and Nunn where undecided voters were forced to pick a candidate, Vine leads by 6 points (53% Vine, 47% Nunn) – demonstrating that Vine’s profile alone is incredibly powerful and appealing to voters. In the head-to-head between Baccam and Nunn, Baccam only leads by 3 points (52% Baccam, 49% Nunn). In a district where Nunn won by only a fraction of a percent in 2022, this will be a close election and every point will matter. Melissa Vine’s ability to essentially double the margin of victory over Nunn (6 points) compared to Baccam (3 points), further reinforces the fact that Melissa Vine is the strongest Democrat to take on Zach Nunn in November.
[VINE PROFILE] Melissa Vine is a small businessowner, mother of four, and director of a non-profit where she helps struggling women and children. Vine is proudly pro-choice and will fight to support abortion rights in Congress—especially when the mother’s life or health is at risk. She will work across the aisle to bring good-paying jobs, lower costs, and accessible health care —including mental health, to hard working Iowa families.
[BACCAM PROFILE] Lanon Baccam is the son of Laotian immigrants who enlisted in the Iowa National Guard at 17 and is a proud veteran. Later, Baccam worked at the United States Department of Agriculture to help expand job opportunities for veterans. In Congress, Lanon will protect women’s reproductive health, expand opportunities to Iowans regardless of background, and get things done for Iowa.
[NUNN PROFILE] Zach Nunn is a proud combat veteran and sixth-generation Iowan who has fought for Iowans’ individual liberties, fiscal discipline, and limited government while in Congress. Nunn is proudly pro-life and will fight for the unborn. From his time as a combat aviator in the US Air Force to his time as a state legislator, Nunn has a long history of public service and delivering for his community.
